bingohouse| The US dollar index soared! Does retail data empower the Federal Reserve to shift policy?

Health 2024-04-16

Huitong Financial App News-- the United States announced a month-on-month increase in retail sales in March.Bingohouse.7%BingohouseIs the expectation of the marketBingohouse0 ofBingohouseIt more than doubled from .3 per cent, and the pound fell to 1.2451 against the dollar within minutes.

Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said: "US retail spending exceeded expectations last month, indicating that potential consumer demand is still very healthy."

bingohouse| The US dollar index soared! Does retail data empower the Federal Reserve to shift policy?

Retail sales in the control group, excluding gasoline, cars, food services and construction materials, surged 1.1 per cent in March, exceeding expectations of 0.4 per cent.

Total revenue from retail stores, online sellers and restaurants jumped 0.7% month-on-month, up 2.4% from a year earlier.

The price index hit its highest level since May last year, in line with signs that US inflation is accelerating again. Faced with rising inflation

Market expectations for the number of interest rate cuts in 2024 have fallen sharply. The latest big institution, Societe Generale, has warned that it no longer expects the Fed to cut interest rates in 2024.

With this shift in expectations, the dollar rose, while stocks came under pressure.

Derek Halpenny, foreign exchange analyst at MUFG Bank, said: "the US CPI data forced the market to reconsider the start of the Fed's first rate cut, and the path for further appreciation of the dollar remains clear."

Corpay's Schamotta said Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell may have no choice but to reschedule the rate cut at the upcoming debut.

"the Fed's repeated assertion that the policy rate is in a 'restricted' range, perhaps defined by the difference between the real federal funds rate and the Holston-Laubach-Williams 's valuation of the 'natural' rate, seems increasingly difficult to justify because indicators of economic activity follow indicators driven by market valuations, indicating massive easing in financial conditions."

But James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said higher inflation could glorify the impression that the economy is booming. "We have to admit that retail sales are nominal growth rates in US dollars, which is the reason for most of the growth when inflation is so high," he explained. Actual retail sales, that is, inflation-adjusted retail sales are much weaker and have been basically flat over the past three years. " Knightley says income growth is slowing, savings are drying up and credit card borrowing costs are at decades-high levels. He added: "We expect spending and inflation to slow, but until then, the Fed will not consider cutting interest rates."

Dollar index daily chart source: Yi Huitong 15:04 Beijing time on April 16, the dollar index was at 106.3079

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