FX168 Financial News (Asia Pacific) News on Wednesday (May 1) morning trading in EuropeRushpinballThe dollar index maintained its intraday rebound and is currently at 106RushpinballAround .50RushpinballSpot gold traded at about $2286 an ounce. This trading day, investors will focus on the Fed's interest rate decision, which is expected to trigger a major market situation. Well-known financial information website EconomiesRushpinballThe latest article from .com on Wednesday provides a forward-looking analysis of the latest trends in Euro / USD, GBP / USD, USD / JPY and gold.

Fed officials are likely to keep interest rates stable at decision-making meetings for the sixth time in a row and may hint that there are no plans to cut interest rates in the near future against a backdrop of higher-than-expected inflation.

On Tuesday, economic data related to the cost of jobs in the United States pushed the dollar sharply higher. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.64% to 106.33 on Tuesday. Spot gold closed down $49.16, or 2.11%, at $2286.13 an ounce on Tuesday.

Wages, as measured by the government employment cost index, rose 1.2 per cent month-on-month from January to March, up from 0.9 per cent in the previous quarter and higher than the expected 1.0 per cent, the Labor Department said on Tuesday. Analysts say increases in wages and benefits are likely to exacerbate the Fed's concerns that inflation may still be too high in the coming months.

Paul Ciana, a technical strategist at Bank of America (Bank of America), points out that the underlying scenario is that the dollar is supported and strengthened. They still advocate buying dollars at bargain prices and expect the dollar to rise again in the second quarter.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce the interest rate decision at 02:00 Beijing time on Thursday, and Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy at 02:30 on Thursday.

FOMC is expected to keep the target range of the benchmark interest rate at 5.25% Mel 5.5%. Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell's press conference has attracted a lot of attention, from which investors will look for relevant clues about the future policy path.

Fed policy makers are reluctant to start cutting interest rates until they are sure that inflation is close to 2%, which they think is appropriate for a healthy economy. Although they had planned three interest rate cuts in 2024 as early as March, Mr Powell might say they had been shelved and would depend on an improvement in inflation.

Ricardo Evangelista, a senior analyst at ActivTrades, said Powell's position could be very hawkish, pushing expectations of a first rate cut to the fourth quarter or even next year-a situation that bodes ill for gold.

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, said the Fed will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Amid signs of continuing inflationary pressures, the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The Fed is also expected to reiterate that interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time, sending a hawkish message overall.

Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, said traders were increasingly digesting the risk that the Fed might raise interest rates again at some point, rather than keeping rates at current levels.

Journalist Nick Timiraos, who is regarded as the "Fed mouthpiece", wrote on Tuesday that the Fed will signal its willingness to keep interest rates high for a longer period of time.

Fed officials will keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at around 5.3 per cent at its highest level in more than 20 years at a two-day policy meeting that begins on Tuesday, Timiraos said. Due to higher-than-expected US inflation in the first three months of this year, the Fed is likely to postpone foreseeable rate cuts in the future. As a result, Fed officials are likely to stress that they are prepared to keep interest rates stable, a level most expect to have a meaningful dampening effect on economic activity for longer than they had expected.

Timiraos said Powell was likely to repeat the message he sent two weeks ago at Wednesday's press conference, when he said the recent data "clearly did not give us more confidence" that inflation would continue to fall to 2%. "on the contrary, the data suggest that it may take longer than expected to achieve this goal."

Chris Turner, head of global markets at ING, said stocks fell because of persistently high inflation and the Fed may postpone interest rate cuts, which could be good for the dollar. Although investors have slashed their expectations of interest rate cuts in recent months, the rise in the dollar, a safe haven currency, has been limited because of the rise in the stock market. As the Fed announces that interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time, stocks will sell off, which should "prove that the dollar will be a bull market story".

The following is Economies.com 's technical analysis of major currency pairs and gold:

EUR / USD

EUR / USD confirmed that it fell below the bearish flag support line, thus activating the negative effects of this pattern and gaining negative momentum to support the expectation that the exchange rate would fall in the next few trading sessions. The path for the euro / dollar to fall to its target level of 1.0615 has been opened. If it falls below this level, EUR / USD will continue to be bearish, with the next target of 1.0520.

Therefore, we will continue to forecast that EUR / USD will be bearish during the day. The 50-cycle exponential moving average (EMA) forms bearish pressure. It is important to take into account that if the euro / dollar breaks through 1.0715, this will stop the expected decline and cause the exchange rate to start a new attempt at recovery.

EUR / USD is expected to trade between support level 1.0570 and resistance level 1.0720 today.

Today's expected trend for EUR / USD is bearish.

Sterling / dollar

GBP / USD successfully hit our waiting target of 1.2480 and fell below 50-cycle EMA under bearish pressure, paving the way for the exchange rate to fall below these levels and fall further in the next few trading sessions, with the next target at 1.2385.

As a result, GBP / USD is still expected to be bearish for some time to come. It is important to take into account that if the pound / dollar fails to fall below 1.2480, this will cause the exchange rate to start trying to recover, with the first goal being to test 1.2580.

GBP / USD is expected to trade between support level 1.2390 and resistance level 1.2550 today.

Today's expected trend for sterling / dollar is bearish.

USD / JPY

The USD / JPY showed a significant upward trend and approached the first bullish target of 158.20, confirming that the exchange rate returned to the main bullish track after a brief bearish adjustment in previous trading sessions. We expect the USD / JPY to continue to rise, with the next target looking at 160.00.

50-cycle EMA continues to support the USD / JPY bullish trend. Unless the exchange rate falls below 155.50 and stays below that level, bullish expectations will remain valid.

USD / JPY is expected to trade between support level 157.00 and resistance level 159.00 today.

The expected trend for USD / JPY is bullish today.

Gold

The price of gold is close to the target price of $2260.60 per ounce, which is 50 per cent of the Fibonacci rally from $1984.16 to $2431.44 per ounce. This means that if gold falls below $2260.60 / oz, gold will continue to be bearish and aim for the next target of $2207.80 / oz.

On the other hand, we note that the gold price shows a high downward trend, which supports the expectation that the gold price will continue to decline and touches more bearish targets, in particular, the 50-cycle EMA creates persistent bearish pressure. Therefore, unless the gold price rebounds above $2325.90 / oz and remains above that level, we will continue to forecast a bearish trend in gold prices for some time to come.

Gold is expected to trade between support of $2260.00 / oz and resistance of $2305.00 / oz today.

The expected trend for gold prices today is bearish.